ANDREW BOLT GETS THE LAMBERT TREATMENT

In his latest post, serial misleader Tim Lambert attempts to debunk Andrew Bolt's debunking of An Inconvenient Truth. One thing Lambert finds fault with:

Gore claims the seas have already risen so high that New Zealand has had to take in refugees from drowning Pacific islands.

In fact, the Australian National Tidal Facility at Tuvalu in 2002 reported: "The historical record from 1978 through 199 [sic] indicated a sea level rise of 0.07 mm per year." Or the width of a hair.

Says Auckland University climate scientist Chris de Frietas: "I can assure Mr Gore that no one from the South Pacific islands has fled to New Zealand because of rising seas."

Lambert responds:

This one is wrong. The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project 2005 report on Tuvalu says:

The sea level trend to date is +5.0 mm/year but the magnitude of the trend continues to vary widely from month to month as the data set grows. Accounting for the precise levelling results and inverted barometric pressure effect, the trend is +4.3 mm/year. A nearby gauge, with a longer record but less precision and datum control, shows a trend of +0.9 mm/year.

And despite de Freitas' denial, people have fled to New Zealand from Tuvalu:

Seeing themselves as climate refuges some Tuvalans are already leaving their islands, moving their communities to higher ground in a new land. ... Fala and Suamalie, along with international environmental activists, argue that Tuvaluans and others in a similar predicament should be treated like refugees and given immigration rights and other refugee benefits. This tiny nation was among the first on the globe to sound the alarm, trekking from forum to forum to try to get the world to listen. New Zealand did agree to take 75 Tuvaluans a year as part of its Pacific Access Category, an agreement made in 2001.

Having not seen An Inconvenient Truth I'll have to assume Bolt accurately characterizes what's in the film. I also assume that both Lambert and Bolt are right with the tide gauge figures but will rely on Lambert's more up-to-date figures in examining whether rising sea level is forcing Tuvaluans to flee their homeland.

The tide gauge Lambert refers to was installed in 1993; with sea level rising at five millimetres a year the total rise over the following ten years – to 2003 – should be approximately five centimetres. According to the accepted wisdom, each one centimetre rise in sea level results in approximately one metre of beach erosion. Thus, Tuvalu should be shrinking, considerably.

According to a recent study of beach erosion in Tuvalu, the uninhabited islands of Funafuti atoll actually increased in area by some 2.8% during the period 1984 - 2003. Here are some observations regarding the most densely populated island, Fongafale:

Significant changes in the position of the lagoon shore of Fongafale was found to have occurred in the period from 1941 to 2003. In 1943 the US military artificially increased Fongafale’s land area (approximately 8.5 % or 5.7 Ha) by the reclamation of the lagoon coastline by 25 to 30 m. As earlier discussed this effort was not undertaken with the view to retain natural shoreline processes and the reclamation and other associated nearshore works, have left a legacy of instability on this coast. Since this poorly reclaimed zone has long since been settled, it is not surprising that the community has the perception of this coast being vulnerable to wave wash over and erosion, especially during westerly gales (see also Xue and Malolonga, 1995). It is apparent that Fongafale’s lagoon-side coast remains unstable and that it is still “recovering” from those works undertaken some 60 years ago. Superimposed over this long-term disturbance are the numerous efforts of shoreline residents to protect and / or further reclaim on their coastal fringe. In many cases such ad hoc coastal engineering can result in increasing vulnerability by further disturbing coastal processes. Also, land restrictions result in new buildings springing up on newly-reclaimed areas, these remain particularly vulnerable since local protection works tend to fail during bad weather.

This study also serves to show that even in the complete absence of human inhabitants and development, soft shorelines naturally fluctuate and move (= dynamic equilibrium). This is not a problem to the environment as it has occurred since long before the first human footprint marked these beaches. It is a problem which concerns the human use of the environment and highlights the great need for extremely careful consideration of planning, monitoring and use of these fragile atoll shores.

The study includes lots of historical photographs for comparison puposes.

There is nothing in this study that gives even the slightest hint that Tuvaluans are under assault by rising sea level. If they're moving to New Zealand they're doing so because they want to, not because they have to.

Update: If you follow Lambert's "fled to New Zealand from Tuvalu" link above hoping to find proof that rising sea level is causing South Pacific islanders to flee, you'll be disappointed:

Over the last decade, the islanders have come here [to New Zealand] for many reasons – better jobs, college, overcrowding on the islands – and to escape what many see as a threat of sea level rise, caused by global warming.

Tuvaluans are leaving, not fleeing, because they want to find a better life.