Guardian schizo on Iraq

The Wednesday Guardian contains two Iraq opinion pieces, one by Jonathan Steele that's negative, and one by Simon Tisdall that's positive.

Steele:

The weekend's vast protest shows that opposition is still growing, in spite of US and British government claims to have Iraqis' best interests at heart. It was the biggest demonstration since foreign troops invaded.

The key issue, now as it has been since 2003, is for the occupation to end quickly. Only this will reduce the resistance and give Iraqis a chance to live normally. In a new line of spin - which some commentators have taken to mean that the US is preparing for a pullout - US commanders claim the rate of insurgent attacks is down.

The figures are not independently monitored. Even if true, they may be temporary. Thirdly, they fly in the face of evidence that suggests the US is failing. Most of western Iraq is out of US control. The city of Mosul could explode at any moment. Ramadi is practically a no-go area.

Tisdall:

But Saturday's demonstration, the largest that postwar Iraq has seen, suggested that the Sadrists' strategy has definitively changed. Instead of a return to shootings and bombings, they said they would be protesting and lobbying the new Shia-led government as part of a non-violent campaign to secure a US and British withdrawal.

This belated recourse to democratic means by one of Iraq's most formidable militias is in some ways more impressive than the election itself. Predictably, the big poll winners were the moderate Shia parties and the Kurds. The process failed to draw in the Sunni minority, let alone the various hardline Islamist factions.

But progress is being made in involving Sunni representatives in the government and in the writing of a new constitution. And as people such as Mr Sadr focus on conventional politics, the momentum behind the insurgency finally seems to be slowing.

Although US commanders say they still face at least 12,000 fighters, daily attacks on allied forces have dropped by more than two-thirds since the pre-election period. The Iraqi security forces are now bearing the brunt, and are said to be responding with increased competence.

To be honest, Tisdall's piece isn't totally positive but it's a lot better than the relentlessly negative stuff the Guardian usually cranks out. Maybe there's hope for Iraq yet. Maybe there's even some hope for the Guardian. Nah.