Monday, October 17, 2005

BIRD FLU WAR

Not the war on bird flu, the bird flu death toll prediction war:
A few weeks ago, David Nabarro, the UN's influenza coordinator, came up with a global death toll of 150 million. The World Health Organisation quickly offered a rebuttal, saying the correct figure was 2 to 7.4 million. But as the WHO well knows, the only true predictor is what happened in 1918. Then, as now, an avian virus suddenly acquired the ability to latch on to and invade human lung cells. The difference is that the Spanish flu - so-called because Spain was the only country not to censor news of the illness - was also highly infectious between humans. Scientists now estimate that the 1918 pandemic may have killed 40 to 100 million people worldwide. If you take into account the current world population, a direct extrapolation gives you 325 million deaths.

If that's not sufficiently scary, there's more. Epidemiologists estimate the 1918 virus killed 2.5% of those infected. But we know that GenZ kills 70% of the people it infects. In other words, the true worst-case scenario based on 1918 could be 1 billion deaths worldwide. This is what Davis means by the monster at our door and why he believes scientists, and the press, are right to sound the alarm.
The 70% death toll is interesting because earlier the article states that 60 of the 100 person to contract GenZ have died to date.

What will eventually get me, the high fat vegetable-free diet, cigarettes or bird flu? I'm betting on the cigarettes, stay tuned.

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