Monday, April 04, 2011

Cyclone warning

Australia might experience fewer but stronger cyclones, maybe:
Debbie Abbs, a principal research scientist for the CSIRO's Marine Atmospheric Research Division, says her team looked at the outputs from 12 climate models that focus on the Australian region.

"We are finding an approximate 50 per cent decrease in the frequency of occurrence of cyclones affecting our region," she said.

"The reduction that we are talking about is by the end of the 21st century. There is a smaller reduction earlier on, but it gets more intense with time."

Dr Abbs says although there may be fewer cyclones, they could be more severe.
No speculation as to the net impact of a speculated fewer but more intense cyclones.


Anonymous Chistery said...

It would be interesting to know why we need 12 climate models and by how much they differ. There is clearly no such thing as one accurate one or we'd just use that. I guess the hope is that 12 inaccurate ones will yield a slightly better guess than rolling the dice.

1:08 PM  

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